Obama is Winning

There is no doubt about it. President Obama is winning the race for President right now. The national polls show it. The pundits are talking about it. And Mitt Romney is shaking up his campaign to try and stop it. Romney continues to make mistakes. The latest is a video in which the wealthy and entitled Romney says that the 47 percent of those who plan to vote for Obama don’t pay income taxes and think they deserve a handout. But it’s still not over

What seemed like a close race in the minds of observers during the summer was blown wide open during the Democratic Convention. After three days of inspiring, messaging-hitting speeches it seems clear now that Obama is the favorite to win the election. However, we still have about 50 days, three presidential debates, and close to $1 billion of television ads to go. It’s not over.

The road to a victory in November for Obama will not come without a fight from the other side. The Presidential race will probably come down to ten states – Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Karl Rove’s 3-2-1 strategy for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes and win the election this year is real and possible. Here it is:

3 – Romney has to win the three traditional red states – North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia

2 – Romney has to win Florida and Ohio

1 – Romney has to win one of the remaining five battleground states – Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire.

The good news for Democrats is we only have to crack one of the above scenarios and Obama will win re-election. Obama is leading in the polls in Virginia, Ohio, and all five of the remaining battleground states. I like our chances, but it’s not over.

All of the polls are based on historical assumptions on who will vote on Election Day. But Will the voters be male or female? Black, white, brown, green, or blue. Liberal or Conservative? The next 50 days are critical but today Obama is winning.